VerdictApril 28, 2026By Andrew Swinney

Should you refinance today?

We ran the math on a $400,000, 30-year mortgage at the rates we're tracking right now. Here's what we found.

Our verdict
Wait until 5.75%
That's where you'd save ~$260/month and break even on $6,000 in closing costs in under two years.
Assumes a $400,000 balance, 30-yr fixed, currently 6.75% APR, $6,000 in closing costs.

The math

Refinancing is a trade: you pay closing costs upfront in exchange for a lower monthly payment. The honest question is how long until those savings pay back the upfront cost. Below is that break-even, charted across the range of rates a borrower with good credit might realistically be quoted today.

Months until refinancing pays for itself

At 6.75% you're paying $2,594/month. Anything below that line saves you money — but only above the dashed threshold does it pay back closing costs in under two years.

Honest Number calculation · $400,000 balance · 30-yr fixed · $6,000 closing costs

When the verdict flips

Three things change the answer. One: a bigger loan balance amplifies every basis point — at $700K, even a 0.50% improvement is worth running the numbers. Two: if you're planning to stay in the home for a decade or more, longer break-evens become acceptable. Three: if you can remove PMI as part of the refi (because your home value has risen), the effective savings are higher than the rate drop alone suggests.

Run your own numbers

Plug in your actual balance, current rate, and a quoted refi rate. We'll show you the new payment, the lifetime interest, and a year-by-year amortization chart.

Open the mortgage calculator